Roughly 30,000 pounds of hops traded on The Exchange during Nov 2015, with more than 66,000 pounds listed. You can find the breakdown of varieties sold/listed during November in the pie charts below.
Looking at an index of some of the more popular varieties, you can see the free market in action. The chart below combines all Amarillo, Citra, Mosaic, and Simcoe data (by month) since May. Notice the developing differential between ave list price and ave sell price in Nov, as well as >1 ton of highly demanded hops rejected by buyers at high prices.
A deeper dive into Amarillo shows the same.
There’s >500 pounds of Amarillo currently parked at prices free market buyers consider too high.
The same is true for the most purchased variety in November, Citra…
…with over 600 pounds currently priced out of the market.
Same for Mosaic…
(and another ~600 pounds priced out of the market)
No differential has developed between Simcoe list and sale prices yet because nobody offered Simcoe at reasonable prices in November.
And there’s >800 pounds of Simcoe rotting on The Exchange at high prices.
Will these sellers lower their prices or be left holding the bag as supply and demand equalize? Personally, I can’t believe anyone buys anything at prices like these. $19/pound is the highest price I’ve ever paid for hops. That was during 2008, when there was no other option.
Centennial continues its slide off the “hard to get (HTG)” index. Supply and demand seem to be much closer to equilibrium vs. other HTG varieties and Centennial’s ability to sell out quickly has taken a hit since harvest.
Prices are somewhat stable, in a reasonable range, and there are currently >3,500 pounds parked on The Exchange at prices between $8.99 and $15.50.
Pricing for Cascade (the most listed and the 2nd most purchased variety in Nov) remains stable.
Nearly 16 tons of active Cascade listings!
Those were some highlights from last month. If you enjoy market insights such as these, please let us know by leaving a comment, sharing, and/or liking this post on Facebook. The greater the feedback received, the more inclined we are to devote limited resources to sharing future market analyzes. Cheers & we hope you have a Merry Christmas!