The December numbers are in. Over 70 varieties had sales in Dec - many at very low prices. I hate to spend so much time focusing on a handful of high-priced varieties… but these varieties are intriguing and worth studying.
Amarillo
15-Month Weighted Ave Trading Price: $17.45
Total Pounds Sold: 12,933
Ave Trading Price in Dec 2015: $17.36
Total pounds sold in Dec 2015: 2,387
30-day Trend: Price up, Volume up
Notes: Roughly 1 ton of inventory parked on the site - up considerably from last month, indicating possible slowing demand.
Citra
15-Month Weighted Ave Trading Price: $19.53
Total Pounds Sold: 14,647
Ave Trading Price in Dec 2015: $18.56
Total pounds sold in Dec 2015: 2,706
30-day Trend: Price down, Volume flat
Notes: I contracted 2015 Citra (for a brewpub…so not big volume or rock bottom prices) a couple of years ago at $12.05/lb. It seems like fair market value for this variety should be somewhere in the $12-18 range. If you’re buying $20+ Citra, you’re paying too much.
Mosaic
15-Month Weighted Ave Trading Price: $22.70
Total Pounds Sold: 5,610
Ave Trading Price in Dec 2015: $20.88
Total pounds sold in Dec 2015: 726
30-day Trend: Price up, Volume down
Notes: With trading volume <1,000 pounds, the Dec ave price carries very little weight. I contracted 2015 Mosaic (again, for a brewpub…so not big volume or rock bottom prices) for $11.55. Recent Mosaic prices on The Exchange seem very high. I doubt significant volumes of Mosaic would actually change hands at recent prices. If you’re a buyer who can hold out for better prices, you should.
Simcoe
15-Month Weighted Ave Trading Price: $18.38
Total Pounds Sold: 13,095
Ave Trading Price in Dec 2015: $19.62
Total pounds sold in Dec 2015: 2,200
30-day Trend: Price down, Volume up
Notes: Price seems to be correcting downward. For comparison, I contracted 2015 Mosaic (you guessed it…for a brewpub, so not big volume or rock bottom prices) for $10.86.
So those are the oddballs - only a few other varieties ever trade at prices like these. The vast majority of varieties trading on The Lupulin Exchange do so in single digits. Cascade, for instance, has been incredibly stable with lots of turnover. There’s currently > 23 tons of Cascade on LEX and it’s trading consistently in the $6.50-7.50 range. A record volume was listed in Dec, indicating that demand may be heading south…despite the fact that it’s the 4th most frequently purchased variety on The Exchange.
A few side notes:
For those of you who don’t want to see overpriced Hop Alerts in your inbox, we have good news. Among other things, we’re currently building the capability to add filters to Hop Alerts. In addition to this being a really cool, super convenient feature, perhaps it will help tune out some of the noise from folks looking to fetch record prices. Not too shabby for a totally free service that you can’t get anywhere else, run by 4 guys with day jobs.
Dec shattered the pounds listed per month record on LEX. We’re talking nearly double the previous record (Nov). Is that just more brewers using The Exchange or are there a lot of hops out there that need a home?
Here’s the variety breakdown for last month:
Last month, we reported on a healthy developing differential between ave list price and ave sell price, decreased prices, and inventory left on the table when evaluating the 4 high-demand varieties listed above as an index. Good news - that trend appears to be continuing, indicating that the free market is stabilizing prices. Once again, here is combined data for Amarillo, Citra, Mosaic, and Simcoe since May.
Also, If you haven’t checked out our other blog posts about high prices…well, you should.
Those were some highlights from last month. If you enjoy market insights such as these, please let us know by leaving a comment, sharing, and/or liking this post on Facebook. The greater the feedback received, the more inclined we are to devote limited resources to sharing future market analyzes. Cheers & we wish you the happiest, happiest…the happiest, New Year!